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Gujarat post-poll survey: Narendra Modi-led BJP set to win 129-141 seats

this report from http://m.ibnlive.com/wsf/article_mobilePageNew.php?id=311351&sid=37

Narendra Modi will continue to lord over Gujarat for the next five years as he is all set to score a hat-trick of electoral victories and lead the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) back to power. According to the post-poll survey conducted by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) and seat projections by Chennai Mathematical Institute Director Rajeeva Karandikar, Modi will steamroll the opposition and become the chief minister of Gujarat once again.

The post-poll survey of 3755 persons at 239 locations in 60 constituencies in Gujarat shows that Modi is going to better the 2002 and 2007 results and win by a very handsome margin. While the BJP will have a vote percentage of 48, the party is going to win 129-141 seats (the party had won 117 in 2007 in the 182-member Assembly) with the Congress trailing far behind with 36 per cent of the votes and its worst show in the state with only 37 to 45 seats (the party had won 59 in 2007). The other smaller parties would garner 16 per cent of the votes and end up with 4 to 10 seats (others had won six seats which included three by the NCP, one by the JD(U) and two Independents in 2007).

What is surprising that even though the BJP is losing one per cent of the votes as compared to the 2007 elections, the party is set to win at least 12 seats more than last time. The Congress's votes too is down two per cent from the 2007 figure and the other smaller parties are also losing four per cent votes all of which is being cornered by Keshubahi Patel's Gujarat Parivartan Party, which didn't exist in 2007.

The Modi regime is riding on a pro-incumbency wave with a majority of the voters in favour of re-electing him. In fact, the BJP is way ahead of the Congress in all the regions of the state. Despite Keshubhai Patel's GPP being strong in the Leuva Patel-dominated Saurashtra, it is the BJP which is getting the maximum votes there. In North Gujarat, the BJP gets 54 per cent of the votes and it is only Central Gujarat where the Congress comes within touching distance of its political opponent.